Michael Frazier II
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Shooting Guard | 6’4 | 200 | Florida
Projected: 2nd rounder
Best Case: Danny Green
Most Likely: Troy Daniels
Worst Case: Doron Lamb
Michael Frazier is an odd type of draft prospect – depending on who you talk to he could be borderline undrafted or a first round talent. Those siding on the first round talent end of the scale are the more analytically minded draft experts, Kevin Pelton chief among them.
In my view, if you can make 3.5 three pointers per 40 minutes for your college career you’ve got the basis for NBA consideration. If you can hit those at a 43% clip playing for a program like Florida and add lockdown defense to the equation then you need to start looking for reasons not to draft the guy.
Those reasons do exist, if you squint. He has been the James Jones of college ball the past three years, averaging more than twice as many three point attempts as two pointers and barely cracking 2 free throw attempts per 40 over the course of his career. He’s also on the short side of ideal for a guy you hope will be an effective wing defender and doesn’t have the length to compensate. That means he’ll largely have to be matched up on guards, a disadvantage given how many NBA coaches like switching assignments (and pick and rolls) in the modern NBA.
In the end though, if you can nab a reasonably athletic long range sniper in the 2nd round of the draft, you should probably go for it. Troy Daniels helped win the Rockets a playoff game last season after all. 3>2.