Now that we know where the Blazers stand picks wise, I thought it'd be a good time to look into where guys are currently projected to go. Just looking at a couple of mainstream mock drafts simply won't suffice, so I took it a step further....
The mock drafts I used came from here. Some are more reputable and well sourced than others but most of those I used were important enough to their creators that they updated them yesterday following the draft lottery. For this exercise, whether they were completed pre-lottery or post-lottery doesn't matter so much, as the purpose is to get an idea of which part of the draft guys are slated in rather than which team they'll end up on. Given the complete lack of movement outside of the top four this year, it's unlikely anyone shifts more than a couple of spots based on the results of the lottery.
For those that care/are interested in reading a bunch of mock drafts (some interesting, others amusing), these are the 15 I used:
The basic idea was to create a consensus mock drafter's mock draft. The easiest way to do that was just to tabulate all the varied picks for each first round prospect and average them out. This is what the spreadsheet spat out:
1. Anthony Davis | PF/C | 19 | 6'10 | 220lbs | Kentucky | Average Position - 1 |
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | SF | 18 | 6'7 | 230lbs | Kentucky | Average Position - 2.7 |
3. Bradley Beal | SG | 18 | 6'4 | 200lbs | Florida | Average Position - 3.7 |
4. Thomas Robinson | PF | 21 | 6'9 | 240lbs | Kansas | Average Position - 4.1 |
5. Andre Drummond | C | 18 | 6'11 | 268lbs | Connecticut | Average Position - 4.7 |
6. Harrison Barnes | SF | 20 | 6'8 | 225lbs | North Carolina | Average Position - 5 |
7. Jared Sullinger | C/PF | 20 | 6'9 | 280lbs | Ohio State | Average Position - 9.5 |
8. Perry Jones III | SF/PF | 20 | 6'11 | 220lbs | Baylor | Average Position - 9.5 |
9. Damian Lillard | PG/SG | 21 | 6'2 | 185lbs | Weber State | Average Position - 9.6 |
10. Jeremy Lamb | SG | 20 | 6'5 | 185lbs | Connecticut | Average Position - 10.7 |
11. Tyler Zeller | C | 22 | 7'0 | 250lbs | North Carolina | Average Position - 11.8 |
12. Kendall Marshall | PG | 20 | 6'4 | 200lbs | North Carolina | Average Position - 12.8 |
13. John Henson | PF | 21 | 6'11 | 220lbs | North Carolina | Average Position - 12.9 |
14. Dion Waiters | SG/PG | 20 | 6'4 | 210lbs | Syracuse | Average Position - 15.5 |
15. Austin Rivers | SG/PG | 19 | 6'4 | 200lbs | Duke | Average Position - 15.5 |
16. Arnett Moultrie | PF/C | 21 | 6'11 | 220lbs | Mississippi State | Average Position - 15.6 |
17. Terrence Jones | PF/SF | 20 | 6'9 | 250lbs | Kentucky | Average Position - 15.8 |
18. Meyers Leonard | C | 20 | 7'1 | 240lbs | Illinois | Average Position - 16.5 |
19. Terrence Ross | SG/SF | 21 | 6'7 | 200lbs | Washington | Average Position - 16.9 |
20. Quincy Miller | SF | 19 | 6'9 | 200lbs | Baylor | Average Position - 20.2 |
21. Moe Harkless | SF | 19 | 6'8 | 210lbs | St. John's | Average Position - 22 |
22. Marquis Teague | PG | 19 | 6'2 | 180lbs | Kentucky | Average Position - 23 |
23. Fab Melo | C | 21 | 7'0 | 250lbs | Syracuse | Average Position - 23.1 |
24. Tony Wroten | PG/SG | 19 | 6'5 | 180lbs | Washington | Average Position - 24.5 |
25. Jeff Taylor | SF | 23 | 6'7 | 225lbs | Vanderbilt | Average Position - 24.7 |
26. Royce White | PF | 21 | 6'8 | 270lbs | Iowa State | Average Position - 24.9 |
27. Andrew Nicholson | PF/C | 22 | 6'9 | 220lbs | St. Bonaventure | Average Position - 25.9 |
28. Festus Ezeli | C | 21 | 6'11 | 255lbs | Vanderbilt | Average Position - 26.2 |
29. Doron Lamb | SG | 20 | 6'4 | 170lbs | Kentucky | Average Position - 26.2 |
30. Evan Fournier | SG/SF | 19 | 6'7 | 205lbs | Poitiers | Average Position - 26.5 |
In addition to a simple mean average of where all the different mock drafts had guys slotted, I looked at the median and mode too in order to see what sort of variance there would be in the results.
The order created using median results didn't vary a ton from the above. Meyers Leonard and Doron Lamb moved up the most, both jumping three spots, while Dion Waiters was the big loser, falling from 14th to 18th.
Looking at the mode results, there was again only limited movement. John Henson moved up three spots to the tenth slot, reflecting the fact that mock drafts were quite split on him - many seeing him as a top ten pick and quite a few others projecting him outside the lottery. Meyers again jumped, moving from 18 to 14, for reasons similar to Henson. Moe Harkless lost out more than any other in this analysis, dropping from 21 to 24.
Looking at a combination of the three methods, you can come away with a pretty decent idea of what range prospects are starting out this process in. If we separate it into some basic catagories; top 5, top 10, lottery, top 20 and late first, guys group together fairly neatly.
Top 5 - Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Robinson, Beal, Drummond
Top 10 - Barnes, Sullinger, P. Jones, Lillard, J. Lamb
Lottery - Marshall, Zeller, Henson, Rivers
Top 20 - Leonard, Moultrie, T. Jones, Waiters, Ross, Miller
Late First - Harkless, Teague, Melo, Wroten, Taylor, Fournier, White, Nicholson, Ezeli, D. Lamb
The fact that we get to choose whichever we want of the guys in the top 10 and lottery groups is something we should be pretty stoked about. Things will likely shift some over the next month but even given that, we have something to look forward too! I'm holding on to that.
We might quibble over which style of player we'd like, how much we should consider fit, production vs upside and whatever else but there are some damn good prospects in both of those groups and only a couple look truly risky. Surely we can avoid those and at least hit a nice triple with the 6th pick and a solid double with the 11. Sure the walk-off grand slam is going to the New Orleans but we can get some positive momentum going with this draft. Heck, maybe we even hit a homer. To sum it up - keep the damn picks and make a run at something special, Blazers.